A useful reference article which looks at the difference between finding usability problems and predicting success rates.
Discount usability testing has become very popular thanks to the work of people like Jakob Nielsen and Steve Krug but we need to bear in mind that the focus here is on identifying problems. This article shows why this isn't the same as predicting success rates.
When Discount Usability Misleads Management: A Solution - article by John Sorflaten
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